Live spot price, COMEX / LBMA / Shanghai inventories, and how many days of industrial use exchange-registered silver would cover.
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$54.01
$-0.17 (-0.30%)COMEX front-month last trade · XAG/USD spot shown in ticker
Intraday silver
COMEX futures · 5-minute intervals
Session open
$54.18
Session high
$54.42
Session low
$53.26
Source: Yahoo Finance, COMEX silver futures (SI=F). Prices can be delayed. Hover or drag across the chart for each 5-minute close.
Start here. One score summarises what the dollar, ETF buying and vault cover are doing right now. It describes current conditions — it is not a price forecast.
Composite signal
Neutral-5
Score from −100 (bearish) to +100 (bullish)
Dollar index (3M)
+0.6%
DXY 101.47 → 102.08 over the last 66 trading days. Score = −change ÷ 4%, capped at ±1. A firmer dollar has historically been a headwind for dollar-priced metals.
Weight 30%
ETF momentum (1M)
-16.2%
Average 1-month price change of SLV, PSLV, SIVR, trading at 1.12× average volume. Score = (change ÷ 8%) × (1 + volume tilt ÷ 2), capped at ±1. Rising prices on heavy volume usually coincide with share creation and bar buying.
Weight 35%
Exchange vault stock (12M)
-24.2%
COMEX + Shanghai stock 190 → 144 M oz (2025-11-10 → 2026-10-27). Score = −change ÷ 10%, capped at ±1. Falling exchange stock means a tighter deliverable market.
Weight 35%
How this works: each input is scored from −1 to +1 with the formula shown on its card, then blended by weight — dollar index 3-month trend (30%), physical silver trust 1-month price and volume momentum (35%), and change in COMEX + Shanghai exchange vault stock over up to 12 months, using whatever stored history exists (35%; London is left out because its total includes ETF-backed metal). If a feed is down, that input is dropped and the remaining weights are rescaled — nothing is estimated. The score describes current conditions only. The scenario range simply applies the score to today's spot price over three months; it is not a forecast. Informational only, not investment advice.
Get this signal in your inbox every Monday The weekly report runs the same dollar, ETF and vault checks — see one full sample report free.
Send me the sample →The core of the story: how much silver is actually available in New York, London and Shanghai, and how long it lasts.
Registered free float
144 M oz
Exchange-registered and deliverable silver today: COMEX registered warrants plus SHFE warehouse warrants. London is shown separately because LBMA reports total holdings, not a registered split.
COMEX registered
99.8 M oz
69% of free float
SHFE warrants
44.1 M oz
31% of free float
Change in registered float
-4.4 M oz this week (-2.9%)
+1.2 M oz this month (+0.8%)
-21.6 M oz YTD (-13.1%)
1076 M oz of reported vault stock sits across New York, Shanghai and London. Only 144 M oz of that is exchange-registered and deliverable; London's total includes metal backing ETFs such as SLV. Industry burns 1.78 M oz every day; recycling returns roughly 200 M oz a year, so consumption still outpaces what comes back. A shrinking registered float against steady industrial use is what tightens the physical market.
London total
932
includes ETF-backed
Burn / day
1.78
M oz industrial
Deficit / yr
47
M oz shortfall
Metal available for delivery
Exchange-reported deliverable or vaulted silver. Reporting definitions differ by market.
registered (warranted) · New York · 30% registered / deliverable · eligible shown in grey
● official feed · thevaultreport.com / CME daily warehouse report · as of Oct 23, 2026
Published every US business day, about one day behind the vault activity it reports.
warehouse warrants · China · 100% registered / deliverable
● official feed · Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warrant report · as of 2026-10-26
Published every Shanghai trading day after the close; no update on Chinese public holidays.
total vault holdings · London · includes ETF-backed metal · deliverable share not published
● official feed · thevaultreport.com / LBMA vault data · as of Sep 2026
Published once a month, roughly 2–3 months after the month it covers.
Feeds are checked every five minutes. SHFE warehouse warrants are published daily, so Shanghai changes after the exchange releases its next report.
Coverage ratio · COMEX silver
5.7×
paper claims for every ounce of registered, deliverable silver
OPEN INTEREST · WEEK
+5,559 contracts
Open interest
113,992
contracts
Paper claims
570.0
M oz
Registered
99.8
M oz deliverable
Positioning as of
Oct 20, 2026
CFTC weekly
How this number is built. Each COMEX silver futures contract covers 5,000 troy ounces. Open interest — the number of contracts still open — comes from the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report for SILVER (Commodity Exchange Inc.), futures only, published weekly and dated Oct 20, 2026. Multiplying it by 5,000 gives 570.0 M oz of open claims, which we divide by the 99.8 M oz of COMEX registered (warranted, deliverable) silver from the daily warehouse report.
What it does and does not mean. Most contracts are closed or rolled rather than delivered, so a high ratio is not a prediction that the exchange fails to deliver. It measures how thin the deliverable metal is relative to open positioning: the higher it goes, the more the market depends on contracts being settled in cash or rolled forward rather than in bars. The two inputs have different cadences — registered metal is daily, positioning is weekly — so the ratio steps when the CFTC prints.
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders (futures only, COMEX) and the daily COMEX warehouse stocks report. Informational only — not investment advice.
All tracked vaults · days of industrial use · 5 years
604 days
5-YEAR TREND
▼ -167 days (-4 in the last year)
Now
604 days
5 years ago
771 days
Tightest
532d · Jun 2024
Loosest
771d · Sep 2021
Combined COMEX, Shanghai, and LBMA vault silver divided by daily industrial offtake (~1.78 M oz/day, 650 M oz/year). Months before March 2026 are estimates reconstructed from published exchange reports; from then on the chart uses VaultDrain's live feeds. A declining line means vaults cover fewer days of demand. This wider measure includes London metal that mostly backs ETFs, so it runs higher than the headline figure, which counts exchange-registered silver only. It is not a countdown to silver running out. Estimates, not exact figures.
Vault supply · 5-year history
1076 M oz
5-YEAR CHANGE
-297.2 M oz (-21.6%)
Five-year trend of reported vault holdings — COMEX registered and eligible stock, total LBMA holdings (which include ETF-backed metal and have no registered split), and SHFE warrants. Dashed sections are reconstructed from published exchange reports; solid sections are recorded from VaultDrain's live feeds. Lower totals mean less metal available to settle contracts.
COMEX
99.8
Shanghai
44.1
LBMA
931.9
Total
1075.8
COMEX trend
▼ draining-30.2 M oz (-23.2%)
Watch out: Registered: silver that meets COMEX standards and has a warrant issued against it — available to be delivered against futures. Eligible: also meets COMEX standards but has no warrant; it belongs to a bank, fund or investor storing it there and is not deliverable unless converted. Segregated: a client's specific bars are kept separate and labelled as theirs. Moving metal between registered and eligible is mostly paperwork; the bars usually stay on the same shelf.
Shanghai trend
▼ draining-23.9 M oz (-35.2%)
Watch out: SHFE warehouse warrants are the exchange-registered, deliverable silver held in SHFE-designated warehouses. They are the Shanghai equivalent of COMEX registered stock. The figure does not include SGE vaults, commercial stocks or other private holdings, and daily moves often reflect warrant creation or cancellation rather than physical in/out flows.
LBMA trend
▼ draining-243.1 M oz (-20.7%)
Watch out: LBMA reports total London vault holdings once a month, roughly 2–3 months in arrears. It is not a registered/eligible split; the total includes metal backing ETFs such as SLV, so only part of it is freely available for delivery. The true deliverable drain can therefore be understated.
Track the drain every week Your sample report covers registered float, days of industrial use and paper claims. Ongoing Mondays are $6/month with membership.
Get the free sample →Where silver comes out of the ground, where it gets used up, and why the two no longer balance.
Mine supply by country
Tap a country to see how its annual output has moved since 2019. Bars are scaled to Mexico, the largest miner.
Where it gets used
Industrial uses dominate. Around 200 M oz a year is recycled, which offsets part of that use — the rest is locked into panels, electronics and jewellery.
Solar, EVs, electronics and AI data centers keep pulling metal out of vaults and into finished goods.
Structural deficit 2026
47 M oz
Sixth consecutive deficit year. Supply rises only slightly while demand stays near 1.11 billion ounces.
Mine supply
866
Recycling
200
Total demand
1,113
Top consuming countries
Who uses the most silver each year, across industry, jewelry, silverware and investment. Bars are scaled to India, the largest consumer.
Jewelry, silverware and bar demand — the world's biggest retail buyer.
Solar panels and electronics; demand grows with its manufacturing base.
Industrial uses, coin and bar investment, and jewelry.
Electronics, photovoltaics and automotive components.
Bar and coin investment plus electronics manufacturing.
Semiconductor and display manufacturing.
One of Europe's oldest jewelry and silverware industries.
Semiconductors and electronics exports.
Jewelry fabrication for export markets.
Investment bars and coins; also a hub for vault holdings.
Figures are approximate annual estimates compiled from Silver Institute / Metals Focus country data and rounded for readability. Country-level splits between industrial, jewelry and investment demand vary year to year and are not published in real time. Informational only, not investment advice.
The same supply and demand story projected forward, month by month.
Monthly supply forecast · 2026
M oz per monthEach month: newly mined metal plus recycled metal (stacked) against total consumption.
Mine / yr
866 M oz
Recycling / yr
200 M oz
Consumption / yr
1113 M oz
Monthly balance
-3.9 M oz
Supply falls short of consumption in every month of the forecast — about 3.9 M oz short each month, 47 M oz for the year. That shortfall has to come out of above-ground stock, which is what the vault counters track.
Source: Silver Institute / Metals Focus, World Silver Survey 2026 annual figures, spread across the year with a light seasonal profile for illustration.
How many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. A high number has historically meant silver is cheap.
Gold / silver ratio · COMEX futures closes (GC=F / SI=F)
74.4
SILVER LAGGING
Ratio 74.4 is 7.8% above its own 90-day average of 69.1 — gold is leading.
Also below the long-run 75 marker.
Daily momentum
Silver gaining momentum · -13.8% over period
Each bar is one day's move in the ratio. Green bars (down) mean silver gained on gold that day; gray bars (up) mean gold led.
How many ounces of silver one ounce of gold buys. A falling ratio means silver is gaining on gold. When the ratio crosses below its 20-day and 50-day averages, silver's short-term trend is strengthening.
90-day avg
69.1
30-day change
+8.6%
1-year high
86.3
Silver is priced in dollars, so a weaker dollar usually lifts it. Add gold, copper or the US 10-year yield to see what else is driving the move — all on one scale.
Silver vs dollar 1Y correlation -0.64
Tap a name above to add or remove a line. Every series is indexed to 100 at the start of the selected period so they share one scale — the lines show relative moves, not absolute prices; hover for the real values. Silver and the dollar index usually move opposite, so a weaker dollar is generally a tailwind for silver. Gold shows whether a move is precious-metals-wide, copper shows the industrial demand read, and the 10-year yield shows the cost of holding metal that pays no interest. Correlations are historical, can break down, and do not predict future moves. Source: Yahoo Finance daily closes (SI=F, DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, HG=F, ^TNX); figures may be delayed or revised by the provider.
Fed policy is one of the biggest drivers of precious metals. When rates fall, non-yielding assets like silver tend to become more attractive. See how silver has moved against the effective federal funds rate.
Both series are indexed to 100 at the start of the selected window so they share one scale. Fed funds rate data comes from the FRED DFF series; silver is COMEX front-month SI=F. Correlation is Pearson over the full 1-year history.
Funds that hold silver for investors. Rising prices on heavy volume suggest new metal is being bought.
SLV metal held · real flows
iShares SLV daily 'Ounces in Trust' · as of Oct 26, 2026
498.3 M oz
Positive = metal added to the trust (inflow); negative = metal removed (outflow). Periods fill in as daily readings accumulate.
SLV
Outflow pressureiShares Silver Trust · Physical bullion
$48.72
Silver held: 498.3 M oz
iShares SLV daily 'Ounces in Trust' · Oct 26, 2026
PSLV
Outflow pressureSprott Physical Silver · Physical bullion (closed-end)
$17.27
Silver held: 207.2 M oz
Sprott PSLV daily 'Total Oz. of Silver' · October 26, 2026
SIVR
Outflow pressureabrdn Physical Silver Shares · Physical bullion
$51.22
Silver held: 68.2 M oz
abrdn SIVR daily silver entitlement and shares outstanding · Oct 23 2026
SILJ
Outflow pressureJunior Silver Miners · Miners equity
$23.15
Shares outstanding: 129.6 M
Amplify SILJ daily shares outstanding · Oct 27 2026
How to read this: rising prices on above-average volume in the physical trusts (SLV, PSLV, SIVR) typically signals share creations — the trust must buy and vault physical bars, draining available supply. SILJ tracks junior miners, an equity proxy for speculative interest. Flow rows come from each issuer's own daily report: ounces of silver held (SLV, PSLV) or shares outstanding for the miners fund SILJ, where new shares mean money flowing in. Not investment advice.
Why governments now treat silver as a critical material — and what that means for supply.
Critical mineral status
Silver is on the final 2025 US List of Critical Minerals, published in the Federal Register on November 7, 2025, reflecting supply risk for defense, electronics, and energy. Canada, Australia, and the EU treat it as strategic through their own critical-minerals frameworks.
Defense & aerospace demand
Silver's unmatched conductivity makes it hard to substitute in radar, missiles, satellites, drones, and night-vision systems. Governments rarely disclose exact tonnage, but defense electrification is a growing, price-insensitive buyer.
Energy transition policy
Solar panels are the fastest-growing source of silver demand, and government mandates for renewables lock in that offtake for years. India's solar buildout and China's grid investment both pull heavily on physical supply.
State buying & reserves
Russia's draft budget has included plans to add precious metals — silver explicitly named alongside gold — to state reserves. Central banks outside the West continue to accumulate hard assets as an alternative to dollar reserves.
No big Western stockpile left
The US government once held one of the world's largest silver stockpiles, but the Defense Logistics Agency sold it off decades ago. Unlike with oil, there is no strategic reserve of silver to release in a squeeze.
Why it matters for price
Strategic buyers do not sell into rallies and are not price-sensitive. When governments classify a metal as critical, offtake competition with industrial users tends to tighten an already deficit market.
Summary of public policy documents and reporting, provided for information only — not investment advice. Government stockpiles and defense demand are not officially disclosed; treat directional claims with appropriate skepticism.
What an ounce actually costs at retail around the world, including the dealer's markup.
China is a live market read: the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract (¥13,125 per kg, 2026-10-27) converted at the onshore yuan rate works out to $61.21 an ounce, a premium of 13.0% to London spot. Every other country uses an estimated typical dealer premium. Track the live Shanghai price →
Silver per troy ounce · local currency
USD is the base spot. Other bars add FX and a typical retail dealer premium.
Local prices are approximate retail estimates. Actual dealer quotes vary by product, quantity and payment method.
| Country | Local price | USD equiv | Unit | Over spot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USUnited States | $57.17 | $57.17 | per oz | +5.5% |
| GBUnited Kingdom | £41.57 | $55.49 | per oz | +2.4% |
| DEGermany | €49.94 | $55.87 | per oz | +3.1% |
| INIndia | ₹5,513 | $57.87 | per oz | +6.8% |
| CNChina (Shanghai) | ¥408.23 | $61.21 | per oz | +13.0%live |
| HKHong Kong | HK$436.14 | $55.59 | per oz | +2.6% |
| SGSingapore | S$71.76 | $56.03 | per oz | +3.4% |
| JPJapan | ¥8,778 | $55.76 | per oz | +2.9% |
| KRSouth Korea | ₩75,540 | $57.00 | per oz | +5.2% |
| TWTaiwan | NT$1,838 | $56.41 | per oz | +4.1% |
| THThailand | ฿1,933 | $57.22 | per oz | +5.6% |
| VNVietnam | ₫1,503,287 | $58.20 | per oz | +7.4% |
| IDIndonesia | Rp1,047,333 | $57.71 | per oz | +6.5% |
| MYMalaysia | RM232.11 | $56.79 | per oz | +4.8% |
| PHPhilippines | ₱3,677 | $57.49 | per oz | +6.1% |
| AEUAE (Dubai) | AED205.37 | $55.92 | per oz | +3.2% |
| TRTurkey | ₺2,857 | $57.38 | per oz | +5.9% |
| CACanada | C$77.39 | $55.22 | per oz | +1.9% |
| AUAustralia | A$78.89 | $55.38 | per oz | +2.2% |
The rough timeline back to $100 at different monthly growth rates — including paths where it never gets there.
Live silver milestone
Countdown back to triple digits
Spot is at $54.19 — a 1.8x move to $100. Here's when triple digits arrive at different monthly growth rates:
Illustrative scenarios, not a prediction. Silver can also trade sideways or fall, as the last two rows show — it doesn't move in straight lines.
Every number, sourced and dated The Monday report shows its sources and marks estimates clearly. See one full sample free — no card needed.
See a sample report →Every number on this page, where it comes from, and how often it updates.
Spot price & gold
Live · ~1 minGold API (gold-api.com) XAG/USD and XAU/USD quotes, refreshed every 30–60 seconds. Spot is a wholesale reference price — retail bullion always trades above it.
Intraday & ratio charts
Intraday 5-min · ratio dailyYahoo Finance COMEX futures (SI=F for silver, GC=F for gold). Intraday bars are 5-minute; the ratio chart uses daily closes with 20/50-day moving averages.
COMEX vault stocks
DailyRegistered and eligible warehouse stocks reported daily by CME/COMEX, pulled via The Vault Report. Registered is the deliverable portion; eligible is in the approved warehouse but not yet registered for delivery.
Registered, eligible and segregated
DefinitionsRegistered: COMEX-standard silver with a warrant issued against it, available to be delivered against futures. Eligible: COMEX-standard silver in an approved vault with no warrant; owned by a bank, fund or investor and not deliverable unless converted. Segregated: specific bars kept separate and labelled as a client's own, normally counted in eligible. Moving metal between registered and eligible is mostly paperwork; the bars usually stay on the same shelf.
London (LBMA) vault stocks
Monthly · ~2–3 month lagLBMA publishes total London vault holdings once a month, roughly 2–3 months in arrears. It is not a registered/eligible split; the figure is total stored metal, including ETF-backing stock such as SLV. Only a portion is freely available for delivery. The older as-of date reflects LBMA's own publication schedule, not a stale feed.
Shanghai (SHFE) warrants
Daily (exchange report)Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse-warrant report, published daily and shown here in troy ounces. SHFE warrants are the exchange-registered, deliverable silver held in SHFE-designated warehouses — the Shanghai equivalent of COMEX registered stock. The report does not cover SGE vaults, commercial stocks or other private Chinese holdings.
Dollar index (DXY) chart
Daily · every 5 minYahoo Finance daily closes for COMEX silver futures (SI=F) and the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB), indexed to 100 so they share one scale, with a 1-year correlation reading.
Fed funds rate chart
Daily · every 5 minFRED DFF series (effective federal funds rate) from the St. Louis Fed, aligned with COMEX silver futures (SI=F) daily closes. Indexed to 100 so both series share one scale.
Silver ETF flows
Daily · every 5 minYahoo Finance daily prices and volume for SLV, PSLV, SIVR, and SILJ. Price strength on rising volume approximates fund inflows; exact tonnage changes require each issuer's own daily holdings report.
Mine supply, demand & deficit
Annual surveySilver Institute / Metals Focus, World Silver Survey 2026. Annual figures with a 2026 outlook — static until the next survey, not a live feed. Country mine histories run 2019–2026.
Global retail prices
Live spot · live daily FX · estimated premiumsLive USD spot converted at live daily exchange rates (exchangerate-api.com, updated once a day) plus an estimated typical dealer premium per country. The premium is an estimate, not a quote — actual checkout prices vary by dealer, product, and taxes.
News wire
Every 5 minGoogle News silver headlines. Every item links out to the original publisher; VaultDrain does not verify third-party reporting.
Days of supply left
Recomputed with each feedOur own calculation: combined deliverable free float across the three exchanges divided by average daily industrial consumption. A directional gauge, not a countdown to zero — metal also comes from recycling and investor sales.
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Legal & compliance
VaultDrain is an independent information and community site, not a broker, dealer, exchange, investment adviser, fiduciary, or research provider. Nothing on this site is financial, investment, trading, legal, or tax advice, an offer or solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or trade any security, commodity, derivative, currency, or precious metal. Precious metals are volatile and may result in substantial loss. Conduct your own research and consult appropriately licensed professionals before acting.
Prices, exchange rates, vault inventories, and supply/demand figures come from third-party sources and are shown for information only. They may be delayed, estimated, revised, or wrong, and some figures (including historical vault snapshots, retail prices, premiums, and monthly forecasts) are illustrative estimates. Data labeled live may still be delayed by its provider. Vault categories and availability do not prove that metal is unavailable for delivery. Verify all figures with the named primary source before relying on them.
Triple-digit dates, price paths, ratios, days-of-supply figures, and other forward-looking statements are hypothetical scenarios, not forecasts or guarantees. Past performance does not predict future results. To the fullest extent permitted by law, VaultDrain provides the site “as is,” makes no warranty of accuracy, availability, or fitness for a particular purpose, and is not liable for losses arising from use of the site.
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